GOOD ENTRY POINTS FOR TRADING & INVESTING

Looking at the All-Share Index (ASI) chart below, it is clear that the Nigerian market has been undergoing a correction since 14 May 2026. Following the strong rally from December 2025 through May 2026, many fundamentally sound stocks have retraced significantly and are now finding new support levels.

For me, this correction is creating interesting entry points for both traders and long-term investors.

Stocks I Find Attractive for Trading

Some of the stocks whose current prices I find particularly interesting for short-term trading include:

• TIP — ₦23 – ₦24

• NAHCO — ₦129

• DANGOTE SUGAR — ₦69

• PZ — ₦74

• CWG — ₦17

• UNILEVER — ₦99

• BUACEMENT — ₦269

The figures in brackets represent the entry prices I am watching.

My thinking is to trade some of these positions for potential short-term gains in the region of 10 – 30%, depending on how the market and individual stocks behave. Of course, price targets are not guarantees, and the market can always move differently from expectations.

Stocks to Consider for Longer-Term Holding

Beyond the stocks listed above, there are also several fundamentally sound companies whose prices appear to have stabilised following the earlier rally, with relatively minor fluctuations.

These include Aradel, MTN, HBM (Lafarge), GTCO, Zenith, Jaiz Bank, Seplat, Airtel, UPDCREIT, Dangote Cement, Fidson, NIDF (dividend king), UACN, and others.

Depending on your investment objectives, risk tolerance and research, some of these may also present interesting opportunities for longer-term investors.

Meanwhile, I Am Also Watching the Dangote Refinery IPO

One important consideration is the timing of the Dangote Refinery share allotment. Based on the information provided, the allocation is not expected until around November–December.

It was also mentioned that subscribers with applications of ₦50,000 or ₦100,000 could potentially receive their subscriptions in full. If this happens, larger subscribers may not receive their entire requested allocation, at least initially, until the minimum allocation threshold determined by the company is satisfied.

This is not meant to discourage anyone from investing millions in the IPO. Rather, it is simply a reminder to be realistic about the possibility of receiving less than the number of shares applied for—and therefore not tying up all your available capital in an investment whose final allocation is still uncertain.

There is another interesting dimension.

It was mentioned that approximately 10 million people could subscribe to the IPO, while the company can absorb about 30% oversubscription. With 5.33 billion shares available, dividing that number by 10 million potential subscribers gives approximately 533 shares per subscriber (₦280,000), if everyone were to receive an equal allocation.

And then came the astonishing early demand.

Within just a few hours of the offer going live yesterday, almost ₦1.5 trillion had reportedly been received in subscriptions—even while several fintech platforms, including Bamboo, Cowrywise and Afrinvest, were experiencing difficulties.

If we use the estimated oversubscription threshold of approximately ₦2.795 trillion, the ₦1.5 trillion received within those first few hours already represents roughly 54% of that amount.

Imagine what the subscription figure could look like after the full 30-day offer period.

Please, do not panic if your subscription channel is not working.

As I explained during the live video, IPO allocation is NOT done on a first-come, first-served basis. So, there is no need to rush or worry that you will lose your allocation simply because you could not subscribe immediately.

Relax, take your time, and try again later. You have a 30-day window within which you can subscribe.

Remember: subscription is one thing; allocation is another.

So, stay calm and avoid unnecessary pressure. You will have enough opportunity to complete your subscription within the offer period.

My Personal Approach

For this reason, I am personally considering applying for a relatively small number of shares—perhaps around 1,000+ shares—with the expectation that I could potentially receive a meaningful portion of the allocation.

Rather than committing a very large amount of capital to the IPO and waiting until December, I would prefer to deploy part of my capital into fundamentally sound stocks at attractive entry points, trade some of them for potential short-term gains, and also build longer-term positions where appropriate.

In other words, while I wait for the Dangote Refinery allotment, the market correction itself may be presenting opportunities worth exploring.

As always, do your own research, understand the risks, and invest according to your own financial goals and risk tolerance.

Disclaimer: This is my personal market analysis and strategy, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any stock. Do your own research before making any investment decision.

Fahimtar Kasuwan Hannun Jari da Dangote IPO

Menene Hannun Jari (Equity)?

Hannun Jari (Equity) yana nufin rabon mallaka da mutum yake da shi a cikin wani kasuwanci ko kamfanin da yake samun riba. Muddin ka sayi hannun jari a kamfani, to ka zama daya daga cikin masu gidan sarautar kasuwancin (masu gida)—ko da kuwa rabo mai matukar kankanta ka ke da shi.

Alal misali. Muhammad and Maryam ne suka bude shagon siyar da wayoyi da jarin ₦100,000, a inda kowannen su ya bada ₦50,000, wato 50 % (Equity) kenan. Idan an sami riban ₦20,000 a shekara, haka za a raba riban ₦10,000 ga kowa. Idan kuma shagon ya bunqasa ya koma ₦1,000,000, ka ga kenan kowa hannun jarin shi, ya koma ₦500,000 kenan (50%). Haka lissafin zai kasance idan ma darajan shagon ya yi qasa.   

Hanyoyi 2 da ake Samun Kudi a Hannun Jari

Rabon Riba (Dividends): Idan kamfani ya yi riba a cikin shekara zuwa karshen, yakan raba wa masu hannun jari wani bangare na ribar. Wasu kamfanin na yin rabon a sau daya ne kawai a karshen shekara (Final Dividend) kaman Dangote Cement, wasu kuma sau biyu – a tsakiyan shekara (Interim Dividend) da qarshen shekara (Final Dividend) kaman MTN, wasu kuma har sau hudu, bayan duk watanni uku (Quarterly Dividend) kaman UPDCREIT.

Karuwar Daraja (Capital Gain): Idan ka sayi hannun jari na kamfani a kan ₦90 kowace tsagi (share) kaman MTN a 2019 sanda ta fara siyar da hannun jarin ta ga mutane, sannan kamfanin ta bunkasa har farashin ya koma ₦800 a yanzu wato 2026, ka samu ribar ₦710 (789%) a kowace tsagi idan ka sayar.

Hanyoyin da za ka iya Zuba Jari a Kasuwan Hannun Jari (Stock Market)

Kasuwan Hannun Jari ta Farko (Primary Market): Wannan ya ƙunshi sanda kamfani za ta fara siyar da hannun jarin ta na farko ga gamagarin mutane domin ta tara kuɗin bunƙasa ayyukan ta wato Initial Public Offering (IPO) kamar yadda kamfanin matatan man fetur na Dangote zai fara siyar da hannun jari ga mutane a 14 ga watan Satumba na 2026.

Kamfani zata iya siyar ma masu hannun jari a cikin ta tsagi mai arha a garesu domin ta bunqasa kamfanin ta hanyar Rights Issue ko Rights Offering (RO), kaman yanda kamfanin sukari na Dagote suka siyar da tsagi a 2026 ga kowane mai riqe da hannun jarinta akan ₦60, bayan a lokacin ana siyar da kowace tsagin hannun jarin kamfanin a kasuwan hannun jari na NGX akan ₦75.

Haka zalika, kamfani zata kuma iya neman qarin kudin gudanarwa ko bunqasa ta ta hanyar siyar ma wadanda ke da hannun jari a kamfanin dama wadanda basu da hannun jari a kamfamin tsagin ta a rahusa ta Public Offering (PO) kaman yanda kamfanin MTN tayi a 2021 a inda siyar da tsaginta akan ₦169.

Sai kuma na qarshen su, wanda kamfani ke siyar da hannun jarin ta a cikin sirri wato Private Placement (PP) ga kebabbun mutane masu kudi sosai ko kuma wata kamfanin a farashi mai rahusa domin su tara kudin yin wasu ayyukan kaman yanda kamfanin matatan man fetur na Dangote ta yi a watan Juni 2026 a inda ta sayar da kowane tsagi akan dala 0.35, a yanzu kuma zai sayar da kowane tsagi a IPO akan dala 0.4 wato ₦525. Kudin da aka samu daga dukkanin wadannan hanyoyi guda 4 wato IPO, RO, PO, da PP suna zuwa lalitan kamfanin ne domin yin wani aiki dashi.

Kasuwan Hannun Jari ta Biyu (Secondary Market): A wannan kasuwan ne kuma mutane suke iya yin hada-hadan hannun jarin da suka siya ta hanyar kasuwan hannun jari ta farko (Primary Market) domin su siyar ga wasu mutanen daban kuma su iya siyan hannun jarin wasu kamfanonin wato Stocks domin amfanuwa da su ta idan sun raba riba (Dividend) ko kuma idan farashin su ya tashi wato Capital Gain. Kudin da aka samu ta wannan hanyan, baya zuwa wajen kamfanin da aka siya ko ka siyar, tana shiga aljihun wanda ya siyar ne kawai wato gamagarin mutane masu riqe da hannun jarin kamfanin ko kuma ma’aikatan kamfanin idan su ne suka siyar da hannun jarin su.

Kasuwannin Hannun Jari Guda Nawa ne?

Akwai kasuwannin hannun jari guda biyu a Najeriya. Wanda tafi shahara kuma babban, it ace Nigerian Exchange (NGX) mai dauke da kamfanoni kaman 144 masu jumillan darajan da ya kai naira tiriliyan 157. Mafi yawancin manyan kamfanonin da muka fi yin hada-hada da su suna NGX ne.

Sai kuma ta biyu, wanda qarama ce ana kiran ta da NASD OTC wanda ke dauke da kamfanoni 46 masu darajan da ya kai naira tiriliyan 2.7.

Yanda za ka iya Siyan Hannun Jari

Dillalan Hannun Jari (Stock Brokers): Zaka zabi daya cikin dillalan hannun jari daga cikin sama da 500 domin bude akawunt da su amma fa ka tabbatar wanda ka zaba, yana da rijista da SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission). Sanannu daga cikin wadannan dillalan sun hada da Afrinvest, InvestNaija, Cowrywise, Bamboo, CardinalStone, APT, Trove, Atlass, United Capital, Meristem, da dai sauransu. Yawancinsu zaka iya sauke manhajar su a waya, kadan daga cikin su kuma dole sai dai kayi amfani da komfuta wajen amfani dasu yanda ya kamata kaman Atlass da United Capital.

Bude Akawunt: Kafin ka iya siyan hannun jari, ana da buqatan da ka bude akawunt wato Brokerage Account ko kuma abinda yanzu akafi sani da CSCS Account a wajen dillalan hannun jari wato Stock Brokers. Irin wannan akawunt din ana bude shine kaman yanda zaka bude akawunt din banki a inda zaka cike bayananka tare da adireshin ka, da bayanan bankin ka irin su BVN, sannan kuma ka tura musu da shaidan adireshin ka wanda yake dauke a kudin wuta ko ruwa da bai wuce watanni uku a baya ba. Dole akawunt din bankin da zaka bayar ya kasance banki ne wanda yake Deposit Money Banks kaman irin su GTB, Zenith, UBA, banda irin su OPay ko Moniepoint. Idan ka kammala dukkanin wadannan, za ka jira kwanakin aiki 2 zuwa 7 kafin a fitar maka da lambobin akawunt dinka guda biyu, wato CHN (Clearing House Number) da CSCS (Central Securities Clearing System). Shi dai CHN kaman BVN din ka ne na banki, baya canzawa, koda kuwa ka qara bude wani CSCS akawunt din da wani dillalin daban. Shi kuwa CSCS kaman lamban akawunt dinka ne na banki, wanda zai iya canzawa idan ka bude wani akawunt din a wani bankin daban. Da zaran an kammala buda maka akawunt dinka, sai ka sa kudi, daga nan kuma ka zabi duk kamfanin da kake son siya a NGX domin ka siya a lokacin hada-hadan hannun jari wato, kwanakin aiki, daga 9.30 am zuwa 3.50 pm. Akwai kamasho wato commission da ake biya idan ka siya ko ka siyar da hannun jarin ka. Kudin kamashon ya danganta ne da dillalin da kake amfani da shi. Amma mafi yawanci, suna cire 1.8% ne idan zaka siya, sannan kuma su cire 2.2% idan zaka siyar, jumla ya kama 4% kenan. A sani na, Atlass ne wanda ya fisu sauqi a inda yake cire make 0.8% idan za ka siyar, jumla yak ama 2.2% kenan, sannan kuma ya cire make 1.37% idan zaka siyar. Sai kuma United Capital wanda yake cajin kusan 3.2% gabadaya siye da siyarwa. Zaka iya siyan tsagi daya kacal, ko kuma da yawa wato iya kudin ka iya shagalinka. Amma idan dillalin da ka zaba shima yana aiki ne da wani dillalin kaman Cowrywise, Bamboo, ko Yochaa, to dole tsagin da zaka iya siya na kowane kamfani ya kasance ya kai qiman ₦5,000. A irin su Afrinvest, Meristem, Atlass, ko APT kuwa, zaka iya siyan tsagi daya kaman na Jaiz Bank wanda ake siyarwa a kan ₦8. Saboda haka, da talaka da mai kudi dukkanin su za su iya cin riban hada-hada a hannun jari. Idan kana son siyan hannun jarin NASD OTC, shima sai ka bude akawunt da dillalin ka, idan yana hada-hadan NASD OTC kafin kafa siya da siyarwa a kasuwan. Shi NASD OTC yanada manhaja ne guda daya a inda akeyin hada-hadan kamfanonin shi.

Babban Darasi Kafin Ka Fara Siye Da Siyarwa

Ilimi (Knowledge): Ka tabbatar ka nemi ilimin kasuwan hannun jari kafin ka fara hada-hada a kasuwan domin gudin yin asaran kudin ka saboda akwai sarqaqiya a kasuwan sosai. Ilimi ne kadai zai sa ka iya cin riban da ya kamata ba tare da asara ba. Akwai masu karantarwa da yawa a YouTube (Nairametrics, Wealthcoachomiete, Salihu Lukman) da dai sauran su. Ya zama dole ka laqanci yanda ake siya ko siyar da tsagi (share) ta Limit Order ko Market Order. Idan ka laqance su, zaka fahimci cewa Limit Order ne ya fi dacewa ka dunga amfani da shi a kodayaushe domin yafi samar da rahusa wajen siya da kuma riba wajen siyarwa. Dole ka fahimci yanda zaka harhada kamfanoni domin su tabbatar da cewa samun riban ka ta yanda ko da daya daga ciki yayi qasa, to wani zai tada shi domin ka sami riba a koda yaushe wato Diversification.

Manufa (Objectives: Dole ka qudurce manufan ka a yayin hada-hadan hannun jari. Shin kana so idan ka siya ka riqe ne na lokaci mai tsawo kama shekara 3 ko 5, wato Long-term Investor ko kuwa kana jujjuya hannuwan jarin ka ne domin samun riba ta yanda za ka siya idan sun sauka, sannan ka riqe na zuwa lokacin da za su farashin su zai tashi sai ka siyar ka nemi wani mai sauqin farashi ka qara siya wato Trader. Zabin manufanka tun ran gini ran zane zai taimake ka wajen zaban ire-iren hannuwan jarin da za ka siya. Shin Trader ka zaba ko kuwa Long-term Investor, dole kuma ka laqanci yanda zaka sami hannun jari a rahusa idan za ka siya wato Entry Price. Alal misali, kasuwan ya fara tashi daga Disamba 2025 har zuwa Maris a sa’ilin da ya dan fara hutawa har zuwa Afrilu, daga nan kuma ya qara yin wani goron zabin tashin har tsakiyar Mayu a dalilin sanarwan da FTSE Russell sukayi na daga martaban kasuwan hannun jarin Najeriya tare da qara ma masu jujjuya kudaden ‘yan fansho daman siyan hannayen jari fiye da yanda hukuma ta qayyade musu. Tun daga nan y afara sauka kadan-kadan, har izuwa qarshen Juli, ya cigaba da sauka a Agusta har zuwa 27, wato ranar da FTSE Russell ta tabbatar da cewan zata daga martaban NGX a 21 ga watan Satumba 2026 bayan dakatar da wannan qudirin da tayi a watan Juni. Dole ka laqanci ire-iren wadannan hawa da saukan da hannayen jari keyi sannan ka laqanci daidai lokacin da yakamata ka siya mai rahusa ko kuma ka siyar domin ka sami riba mai kyau.

Halayyan Cinikayya (Investment Personality): Ya kamata ka fahimci irin halayyan cinikayyan ka. Shin zaka iya siyan hannun jarin da yake sama da ƙasa ko da kuwa mai qarfi ne kaman MTN, ko Dangote Cement, ko kuma yake iya tsayuwa ba tare da ya daga ba na tsawon lakaci kaman Airtel (sai da ya tsaya na kusan shekaru 2 a wuri daya), ko kuma wanda yake tsayuwa na wani lokaci kafin ya dan daga kadan kaman Seplat?

Bangarori 5 Masu Kawo Riba

Halal: Wannan bangaren yana qunshe da manya-manyan kamfanoni ne har guda 12 wadanda aka tantance ayyukan su kuma a tabbatar da cewa suna bin abin da Shari’an musulunci ya gindaya wajen harkokin su wato Shari’ah-Compliant. Ga wasu daga cikin su tare riban da suka kawo a cikin wannan shekaran kawai wato Year-To-Date (YTD) Sun hada MTN (59%), Dangote Cement (70%), HBM Lafarge a da (153%), Jaiz Bank, Aradel (111%), NASCON (49%), PRESCO (41%), BUA CEMENT (56%), da dai sauran su. Amma fa ka sani cewa riban da aka samu a baya ba ya nuna cewa haka za ayi ta samu a nan gaba ma saboda kasuwan taba caccanzawa. Ka sani cewa ba wai guda 12 dinnan ne kawai suke Halal ba. Bincike ya nuna sun kai 53 daga cikin 144 wadanda aka tantance su da cewa Halal ne.

Mai Da Gas: Wannan bangare na dauke da kamfanoni guda 7, mafi kawo riba daga cikin su sune Seplat (157%) da Aradel (111%). Ina son Seplat sosai saboda yanda yake tsayawa cik na dan wani lokaci sai kuma ya tashi. Hawa da saukan kasuwan bai cika shafan shiba. Na fara siyan Seplat shekaru biyu da suka wuce a 2024 akan ₦3,300 kowane tsagi daya, a yau ana siyar da kowani tsagi akan ₦16,000 wato ya kawo riban 385% kenan ga wanda ya siya ya riqe har shekaru biyu kacal. ₦100,000 ta koma ₦485,000, haka nan ₦1,000,000 to koma ₦4,850,000, bayan riban da ka kwasa wato Dividend, ba tare da ka yi komai ba. Wannan ya ninka kusan sau 5 kenan a cikin shekaru 2 kawai, shin idan ace gida ne ko fili ka siya, za su iya ninkawa haka a cikin wannan dan qanqanin lokacin?

Banki: Bankunan da suka fi qarfi daga cikin bankuna 14 sune Zenith (103%) da GTCO wato GT Bank (43%). Sauran sun hada da First Bank (184%), Ecobank (77%), Jaiz Bank (69%) da kuma Stanbin IBTC (54%).

Kayayyakin Amfani: Akwai kamfanoni da yawa a wannan bangaren, sun kai 15 – 19. Wadanda suka fi kawo riba a wannan shekeran kuma masu qarfi ne sun hada da PZ (87%), NASCON (49%), Unilever (53%), Vitafoam (111%), Nestle (43%), da UNIONDICON (244%) amma na qarshen bata da qarfi kaman sauran, a kula da kyau.

Sadarwa (ICT): Akwai kamfanoni guda 9, amma manya a cikin su sune Airtel (178%)  da MTN (59%). Daya daga cikin marasa qarfi a cikin su shine NCR (122%).

Me Ya Sa Aka Bar ‘Yan Arewa A Baya A Kasuwar Hannun Jari?

A ganina, abubuwa 2 ne suka sa a ka bar ‘yan Arewa a baya a fannin hannun jari. Na farko dai idan za ka yi la’akari da sauran fannonin rayuwa na karatun zamani kaman irin su lauya (Law), likitanci (Medicine) and jinya (Nursing), injiniya (Engineering) da ilimin tattali da banki (Banking and Finance) zaka ga cewa ‘yan Kudu sun yi ma ‘yan Arewa nisa sosai a baya kaman shekaru 30 – 40. Amma a hankali, sai ‘yan Arewa suka fara yin boko ka’in da na’in, har suka kai ga zama manyan malamai na jami’o’i a Arewa wanda ada mafi yawanci ‘yan kudu ne. A yanzu ‘yan Arewa suna karantan dukkanin fannonin ilimin boko sosai wanda ya hada darussa kaman su Economic, Accounting, Banking and Finance, da dai sauran su.

Dalili na biyu kuma shine addini. Za ka samu wadan su malaman a baya suna yin nuni da cewa musulmai su guji gabadaya kasuwan jari (Capital Market) ko na hannun jari (Stock Market) domin a ganin su haramun ne saboda suna amfani da kudin ruwa (Interest). Haka ya sa mutanen mu da yawa suka guje ma duk wani darasi na Accounting, Banking, ko Economics tare da guje ma duk wani aiki a banki ko inda ya shafi jari (Investment). A hankali, sai aka fara fahimtar cewa ashe za ka iya yin kasuwancin ka a cikin kasuwan hannun jari bare da yin mu’amala ruwa ba. Wannan shiyasa na fara daukan bangaren da yake na Halal ne a sama domin yin qarin bayani. A hankali kuma, wasu na ganin yanda wadanda suka sa hannun jari suke diban garabasa a cikin sauki ta hanyan siya da riqewa kawai na tsawon lokaci ba tare da shan wani wahala ba. A hankali a hankali sai mutanen mu suka qara qaimi wajen fahimtar kasuwan da kuma qin bin hanyoyin macuta wato Ponzi Schemes a inda za a ce wai za a dunga ribanya maka kudinka duk sati ko duk wata.

Shin Ya Kamata Ka Siya Hannun Jarin Kanfanin Mai Na Dagote?

Kamfanin man fetur na Dangote zai fara siyar da hannun jari ga gamagarin mutane kaman ni da kai a ranar litinin, 14 ga watan Satumba, har izuwa 13 ga watan Nuwanba, wato har tsawon wata guda cir ta hanyar IPO. Ya fara siyar ma manyan kanfanoni da masu kudi ta hanyar Private Placement a cikin wat Yuni a inda ya tare $2.5 Biliyan. A yanzu kuma, yana son tara $1.6 biliyan ne ta hanyar siyar da tsagi 4.1 biliyan ga mutane. Wannan kamfanin, zata kasance mafi girma a Africa, sannan kuma tana kan hanyan zama matatan man da tafi kowane girma a duniya a nan ‘yan shekaru kadan. Wannan wata dama ce ga kowa da kowa domin ya sami siyan wannan hannun jarin, saboda dai wannan kamfani tana da riba sosai, kuma bisa ga dukkanin alamu, masu jari a kamfanin za su ribauta a nan gaba. Kada ka bari a bar ka a baya. Yi maza-maza ka bude akawunt kaman yanda na yi bayani sama, sannan ka tanadi ‘yan kudin ka domin siyan wannan hannun jarin. Mafi qaranci shine ₦5,250 wato tsaguna 10, daga nan kuma, zaka iya qarawa goma-goma har izuwa kudin ka.

Shin Zan Iya Sayen Dangote IPO Idan Bani Da Akawunt Din Dillalai (CSCS Account)?

Eh, za ka iya siya wannan IPO din ko da kuwa ba ka CSCS Account a yanzu. Daga baya idan bude akawunt din, sai ka tuntubi masu riqe da hannun jarin kamfanin gabadaya wato Coronation Registrars, ka basu lambobin CSCS Account din ka, domin su saka maka shares dinka.

Sauran bayanin da ke qasa, na tattake wuri wajen yin sharhi mai tsawo a game da su a bidiyon da nayi a Zoom. Za a iya sauraron cikakken bayanai ta YouTube:

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rW1qTFPCyY8&lc=UgwoE6GhfBXRoJYn1vN4AaABAg

Hadari (Risk)

Hawa da Saukan Farashi (Price Movements)

a.    IPO (Aradel, Seplat, MTN, etc.)

b.    Sauran hannun jari (ASI)

c.    Fixed income market (Sukuk, bonds, CP, etc.)

Jari (Capital)

a.    Ajiya (Savings)

b.    Kudin haya (Rent)

c.    Kudin makarantan yara (School fees)

d.    Bashi (Loan): Private, Bank, Loan apps

e.    Yanda zaka iya siyan tsaguna (shares) da yawa.

 

 

 

2 PhDs, 2 Master's, 1 Bachelor's — What an Extraordinary Academic Journey!

Hearty congratulations to Dr. Yusuf Lukman on the successful completion of his second PhD — yes, you read that correctly, a SECOND PhD!

This remarkable achievement comes after he had earlier earned two academic master’s degrees and a bachelor’s degree, all from reputable universities in South Africa.

What an incredible demonstration of intellectual commitment, perseverance, and lifelong pursuit of knowledge.

2 earned doctoral degrees (PhD in public administration & DEd in education management), 2 academic master's degrees (MEd & MPA), 1 bachelor's degree in public administration. One remarkable scholar.

You have made the entire Lukman family immensely proud by achieving this truly remarkable and uncommon feat.

Congratulations, Dr. Lukman! May this achievement open even greater doors and inspire many more. 🎉👏

Stocks vs Fixed Income: Where Should a Smart Investor Focus Now?

Let’s look at this honestly.

Fixed-income assets—like Sukuk, Treasury Bills, Bonds, and Commercial Papers—are designed to give you predictable returns with minimal risk. They are stable, yes… but often limited in growth.

Here is what they mean in simple terms:

• Treasury Bills (T-Bills): Short-term government securities (usually less than 1 year) where you lend money to the government and earn a fixed return.

• FGN Bonds: Longer-term government debt instruments that pay fixed interest over time.

• Sukuk: A Shariah-compliant alternative to bonds, structured around tangible asset ownership and rents rather than interest.

• Commercial Papers: Short-term debt issued by companies (180–270 days) to raise funds, usually offering the highest returns.

Now here is the key point:

These instruments typically offer returns below or around inflation – currently at around 15% - even though they are low-risk.

Let’s look at recent numbers:

• Treasury Bills (1 year): < 22%

• FGN Sukuk (1 year): < 21%

• FGN Bonds (1 year): < 20% (could be as low as 13%)

• Commercial Papers (180 – 270 Days): < 25%

Now compare that with the stock market, using the NGX All-Share Index (NGXASI). The NGX All-Share Index (NGXASI) is the main benchmark that tracks the overall performance of all listed companies on the Nigerian Exchange, showing whether the market is generally rising or falling.

• February 2026: 16.6%

• April 2026: 20.34%

• YTD 2026: 55.4%

• 2025: 51%

• 2024: 37%

Let that sink in.

In some cases, the stock market delivered in just a month or a few months what fixed-income assets aim to deliver in one full year.

But What About Risk?

Yes—stocks carry a higher risk than fixed income.

Prices go up and down.

There are corrections, pullbacks, and volatility.

However, here is the difference:

👉 Risk without knowledge is dangerous

👉 Risk with knowledge becomes manageable

When you understand:

• How to select fundamentally strong stocks (profitable and reward investors)

• When to enter and when to wait

• How market cycles work

You reduce that risk to a bearable and controlled level.

The Real Investment Truth

Fixed income helps you:

✅ Preserve capital

✅ Earn predictable returns

Stocks help you:

✅ Grow wealth

✅ Beat inflation

✅ Achieve financial freedom faster

My Personal Conviction

This is why my focus is on stock investing.

Not because it is easy…

But because it offers the highest return potential when approached with knowledge and discipline.

Final Thought

You don’t have to choose one and ignore the other.

But if your goal is wealth creation, then:

👉 Learn the stock market

👉 Understand it deeply

👉 Invest with knowledge

Because in the long run:

The stock market rewards those who understand it—not those who fear it.

Given the strong current performance of the NGX All-Share Index and the anticipated boost from the upcoming FTSE Russell reclassification in September, a smart investor should strategically tilt more toward stocks than fixed income to maximize investment returns.

Did you claim your share of the ₦5.6 Trillion Naira gain yesterday?

The NGX just surged by 3.77% in a single session, pushing our Year-to-Date return to 52%. To put that in perspective: the market has already outperformed the entire 12 months of 2025 in just 4 months. At the current velocity, the NGX is on track to deliver a staggering 150% return by year-end. If you haven't yet captured the 52% gains of the first quarter, the window is still wide open—but selectivity remains your greatest defense. Positioning yourself in fundamentally sound assets now ensures you aren't merely chasing the rally, but actively owning the next wave of compounding returns.

If your portfolio isn't smiling, it’s time for a clinical audit. This rally is reserved for those holding fundamentally sound stocks. Don’t watch from the sidelines while the market repositions for the real show. Realignment is crucial—ensure you are positioned in high-value stocks today!

To put this historic market surge into context: if a holding has remained in your portfolio for the past 30 days yet continues to languish in the red while the index soars, it is time for a clinical reassessment of its fundamentals. I recently performed this same 'portfolio hygiene'—purging the noise of speculative, low-cap volatility to make room for the market's true engines. In a bull run this aggressive, the greatest risk isn't just holding a laggard; it's the opportunity cost of not holding a leader.

Dividend Alert: Is Your Bank Account Ready?

It is officially "Payday Week" for several top-performing companies on the NGX! Between today and Thursday, several of our favorite fundamentally sound stocks are scheduled to credit shareholders.

The Schedule:

• Today (April 28): GTCO (₦11.76), Transcorp (₦4.00), and NASCON (₦6.00).

• Wednesday (April 29): NGX Group (₦2.00).

• Thursday (April 30): Geregu (₦9.00) and Lafarge/WAPCO (₦6.00).

What You Should Do:

1. Check Qualification: Ensure you held these shares before the "Closure of Register" date for each respective company.

2. Watch for Alerts: Keep a close eye on your bank alerts as and when due over the next 48–72 hours. I have already started receiving mine.

3. Take Action: If you are certain you qualified but do not receive your payment, do not keep silent.

How to Complain:

If your dividend doesn't arrive, contact the Registrar of the specific company immediately via email. Provide your full name, CHN, and bank details to resolve any "non-receipt" issues.

Don't let your hard-earned dividends sit in the "unclaimed" pile. Let’s stay alert! 

Pro-Tip: If you are unsure who the registrar is for a specific company (e.g., Datamax for GTCO, or CardinalStone, Meristem, etc., for others), a quick Google search for "[Company Name] Registrar" will give you their official email address.

Effortless Compounding: Turning Fundamental Knowledge into Passive Wealth

The first quarter of 2026 has transformed the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) into a masterclass in wealth creation. While the All-Share Index (ASI) is delivering a staggering 40% return, the "Centurions" in your portfolio—those that have crossed the 100% YTD mark—are proving that high-conviction, fundamental investing isn't just about beating the market; it's about redefining your net worth in record time.

The "Centurion" Analysis: YTD 2026 Performance

When the broad market (ASI) is up 40%, it’s a rising tide lifting all boats. However, these specific stocks are "teleporting" rather than just drifting upward:

 

ARADEL (150.73%) - Energy

NGXGROUP (135%) - Financial Infrastructure

NAHCO (124.07%) - Logistics & Aviation Services

LOTUSHAL15 (122%) – Shari’ah-compliant investment

ZENITHBANK (109.55%) - Tier-1 Banking

WAPCO (104.46%)  - Industrial

FIDSON/MAYBAKER (100%) - Pharmaceutical

 

Why This Isn't Just "Luck"

The beauty of this list is that these aren't speculative "meme stocks." Their returns are anchored in Earnings Quality:

• Sector Leaders: You are holding the dominant players in Pharmaceutical (FIDSON), Banking (Zenith), Cement (WAPCO), Logistics (NAHCO) and Energy (Aradel).
• The "Alpha" of Knowledge: The difference between a 40% return and a 150% return is selection. By identifying the above stocks early, you transitioned from tracking the market to owning the market leaders.

 

The Best Money Compounder: Minimal Hassle, Maximum Wealth

For those watching from the sidelines, this data proves a fundamental truth: Stock investment is the ultimate "Smart Wealth" generator—provided you do the homework first.

1. Money that Works While You Sleep: While you focus on your career or family, these companies are out there building factories, refining oil, and processing transactions. Your capital is essentially "hiring" thousands of employees to generate profit for you.
2. The Hassle Myth: Many believe you need to stare at flickering red and green screens all day. The opposite is true. If you buy fundamentally sound businesses, like the above stocks, the "hassle" is minimal. You aren't trading "noise"; you are owning "value."
3. Knowledge is the Shield: The volatility that scares most people is actually an opportunity for the knowledgeable investor. When you understand why ARADEL or NAHCO is profitable, a temporary price dip isn't a crisis—it's a "discount."

 

Final Word

The 2026 rally shows that with the right knowledge, 100% returns in four months aren't just possible—they are happening. Stock investing remains the most accessible way to compound wealth without the overhead of physical business management.

Keep the conviction. When you own the best companies, time is your greatest employee.

 

Bullish Market Alert: Position Smartly, Don’t Chase the Rally

The market is speaking—and every serious investor should listen.

We are beginning to see a strong bullish momentum, with the market gaining over 1.24% today and another solid gain (1.7%) yesterday. This is how rallies quietly begin—before they become obvious to everyone.

Now, here is where discipline matters.

If you have reserve funds, this is not the time to chase noise—it is the time to act strategically.

Look around your watchlist and identify fundamentally strong stocks that are:

•⁠  ⁠Yet to move

•⁠  ⁠Just starting to move slowly

These are the opportunities smart investors position in before the crowd arrives. 

At the same time, be very careful.

Not every rising stock is an opportunity.

Stocks that have already run aggressively may look attractive, but they often come with hidden risk:

👉 Pullbacks

👉 Corrections

👉 Sudden dips after a sprint

Always remember:

The stock market is a marathon, not a sprint.

There is another trap many fall into—penny and highly volatile stocks.

I understand the attraction. I once favored them too because of their fast gains. But experience teaches differently.

These stocks can rise quickly—but they can also:

•⁠  ⁠Crash just as fast

•⁠  ⁠Lock you in a full-offer market (no buyers)

•⁠  ⁠Trap your capital when liquidity dries up

And if your entry is late—especially near a 52-week high—you may end up holding losses instead of profits.

So pause and think:

👉 Is this rally supported by real earnings?

👉 Or is it just market-wide excitement?

In a bullish market, everything may rise—but only fundamentally strong stocks sustain the rise with a mild pullback, while those that rose beyond what their fundamentals could support crash.

Be patient. Be selective. Be disciplined.

Because in the end, it’s not about catching every rally—

it’s about keeping your capital and growing it consistently.

Categorizing the March Gainers (Reality Check)

🔴 1. Mostly Speculative / Momentum-Driven

These stocks rallied far beyond what fundamentals justify:

• Premier Paints Plc (rally has already stopped, trades on full offer with no bids)

• John Holt Plc (rally has already stopped, dumping has started, losing 10% daily)

• Fortis Global Insurance Plc (rally has already stopped, establishing a new support level)

• Trans-Nationwide Express Plc (rallied due to low liquidity; no offer was available)

👉 Common characteristics:

• Low liquidity (small float)

• Negative (loss) or weak profit 

• Sharp price spikes (often >100%)

✔️ Conclusion:

These are largely speculative runs, not fundamentally justified.

🟡 2. Mixed (Fundamentals + Momentum)

• Eunisell Interlinked Plc (was on full offer for about 2 months)

• Oando Plc

• Conoil Plc

👉 What’s happening here:

• Some real business improvements

• But price movement ahead of earnings

✔️ Conclusion:

Partly justified, but still overheated in the short term

🟢 3. Fundamentally Supported Performers

• BUA Cement Plc 

• Nigerian Exchange Group Plc

👉 Why they rose:

• Strong or improving earnings

• Sector tailwinds (construction, capital market activity)

✔️ Conclusion:

These moves are largely supported by fundamentals, though still influenced by sentiment.

👉 Cement industry outlook

•  BUA is the "Efficiency King" with a sector-leading 30% net margin.

•  Dangote remains the "Volume King," crossing the ₦1 trillion profit milestone for the first time.

•  Lafarge is the "Value Pick," crossing the ₦1T revenue mark with the most attractive P/E ratio (13x).

🧠 The Big Picture (What Smart Investors See)

👉 In markets like the NGX:

• About 70–80% of short-term rallies are sentiment-driven

• Especially in:

o low-cap stocks

o turnaround stories

o thinly traded equities

⚠️ Key Warning Signs of Speculative Rallies

If you see:

• 100%–300% gain in weeks

• No corresponding profit growth

• Very high or negative P/E, with corresponding low or negative EPS

👉 That’s momentum, not fundamentals

💡 Golden Lesson

“The market can push prices far above value in the short term, but fundamentals always catch up in the long term.”

🎯 What You Should Do as an Investor

✅ Focus on:

• Earnings growth

• Strong balance sheet

• Reasonable valuation

❌ Avoid:

• Chasing already overextended stocks

• Buying based on “top gainers list” 

The Liquidity Trap: Why Triple-Digit Gains of the NGX’s Top Q1 Performers Can Be a Portfolio Mirage

Introduction

The opening quarter of 2026 has transformed the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) into a theater of staggering numbers. With some low-cap stocks printing 1st-quarter (Q1: January - March) returns of 500% or more, the siren song of "easy wealth" has never been louder. This historic surge propelled the first-quarter All-Share Index (ASI) to an unprecedented all-time high of approximately 30%—a milestone of market growth previously unseen in the history of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).  For many, these soaring green candles represent a golden opportunity; for the seasoned investor, however, they could signal a sophisticated liquidity trap that warrants cross-examination.

 

While the market’s focus is often captured by the jaw-dropping 136% to 515% surges of the top 10 performers, this analysis does not overlook the impressive rallies of 30% to 120% seen in the market’s fundamental heavyweights. Established names like Aradel (88%), Seplat (57%), Dangote Cement  (33%), MTN (49%), Zenith Bank (55%), and Nestlé (73%), alongside industrial and healthcare leaders like BUA Cement (83%), Lafarge (63%), Okomu (61%), Presco (37%), May & Baker (100%), and Fidson (100%), as well as construction, consumer, insurance, and logistics giants like Julius Berger (88%), Unilever (31%), Custodian (74%), PZ (85%), NAHCO (79%), and Jaiz Bank (120%), all demonstrated robust growth during this period. This represents substantial value addition and sustainable wealth creation, underpinned by the robust performance of fundamentally sound and highly profitable companies. However, the intent here is to provide a rigorous critical evaluation of those outliers whose astronomical gains may be detached from their underlying financial health.

When a stock rallies on a "Full Bid" with no available offers, it creates an illusion of infinite growth—yet this very lack of liquidity is the "exit door" that slams shut the moment the trend reverses. In this environment, the line between a strategic position and a speculative gamble becomes dangerously thin.

This analysis strips away the hype to examine the cold fundamental data—EPS and P/E ratios—that separate sustainable growth from hollow "pump-and-dump" cycles. Earnings Per Share (EPS) measures a company's profitability by dividing its net income by outstanding shares, while the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio compares the stock price to those earnings to determine if a stock is overvalued (expensive) or undervalued (cheap) relative to its earnings. It shows how much investors are willing to pay for ₦1 of a company’s profit.

By exploring the mechanics of the "Dumping Session" and the necessity to allocate a maximum of 20% of your portfolio to such volatile speculative stocks, we provide a roadmap for navigating these volatile waters safely.

In a market where today’s top gainer can become tomorrow’s frozen asset or even a top loser, understanding the "Speed of Gravity" isn't just an advantage—it is a survival requirement. Let us dive into why your most attractive returns may only be a mirage if you lack disciplined entry and exit strategies.

Beyond the Green: Analyzing the Fundamentals of the NGX’s Top Q1 Performers

Table 1 presents the top 10 Q1 gainers with their associated % gains, EPS, P/E ratios, and market capitalizations.

Fortis Global Insurance

FTGINSURE is the market's most extreme speculative outlier, recording a staggering 515% Q1 rally following its return to active trading in February 2026 after a six-year suspension. This astronomical surge is a "technical recovery" rather than a fundamental one, as the company remains structurally fragile with urgent recapitalization requirements from NAICOM. While it dominated the Q1 gainer's list, its lack of consistent profitability and thin liquidity make it a high-risk "liquidity trap" where paper gains are largely detached from the company's actual solvency. Most of its "gains" are speculative bets that a larger firm will acquire it for its insurance license. A negative EPS serves as a major warning sign, indicating that the company is currently unprofitable and eroding shareholder value.

Fundamentally sound stocks in the insurance sector include: Custodian, NEM, and MBenefit.

 

Premier Paints PLC

PREMPAINTS is currently a high-risk speculative momentum play, with its 275% Q1 2026 rally triggered almost entirely by the lifting of a four-year trading suspension in mid-January. Despite the massive price surge, the company’s industrial fundamentals remain exceptionally weak, characterized by a negligible EPS of ₦0.02 and an unsustainable P/E ratio exceeding 1,600x. Given its low liquidity and extreme valuation mismatch, the stock serves as a textbook example of a "resumption rally" that is highly vulnerable to a sudden and violent "dumping session." Not fundamentally attractive, trades on a full offer now with no bids. 

CAP, Berger, and Meyer are fundamentally stronger in the painting sub-sector.

 

John Holt PLC

JOHNHOLT is currently another case of a speculative "liquidity trap," having recorded a massive 250% in Q1 rally that has almost entirely decoupled from its business reality. The surge was driven by extremely low-float volatility and momentum chasing rather than sustainable core earnings growth, which remains stagnant despite occasional one-off gains from asset sales. After hitting a peak of ₦18.95, the stock entered a violent "dumping session" in late March, characterized by consecutive -10% daily drops and a total absence of buy orders, leaving speculative investors unable to exit their positions. John Holt started the year as a relatively obscure, low-priced stock (around ₦5 –₦7). By late March, it hit a 52-week high of ₦18.95, representing a staggering speculative rally of over 250%. Throughout much of March, the stock was consistently on "Full Bid" with zero offers owing to low liquidity. On March 27, the "Full Offer" session began, signaling the onset of the crash period. Trapped Gains: Investors who "got in mid-way" (around ₦13.00) and were celebrating 40% paper gains are now watching those gains evaporate daily because they literally cannot sell their shares. 

A negative EPS serves as a major warning sign, indicating that the company is currently unprofitable and eroding shareholder value.

Red Star Express PLC

Unlike some of the purely speculative names we've discussed, REDSTAREX presents a much stronger case for being "fundamentally driven," though it still carries the risks inherent in high-momentum stocks. As of early April 2026, its +224% Q1 rally is backed by specific corporate actions and improved earnings visibility rather than just "market noise." Its P/E ratio indicates that investors are paying a premium for future growth. It appears fundamentally reasonable.

 

SCOA Nigeria PLC

SCOA presents a fascinating case of a "hybrid" rally, which is fundamentally supported, but speculatively overextended. While it has seen a staggering +219% Q1 gain, the driver is a mix of genuine fundamental recovery, with higher earnings rebound and revenue growth, and a release of long-standing regulatory pressure. Unlike some purely speculative "penny stocks," SCOA’s movement is backed by a notable improvement in its business operations and a massive "housecleaning" effort by the board. It carries the risks inherent in high-momentum stocks given its low liquidity. It has been on Full Offer ever since it reached its 52-week high at ₦38, three weeks ago.

Deap Capital Management [DWL]

DEAPCAP is currently a high-stakes speculative turnaround play, with its 200% Q1 rally 2026 driven almost entirely by investor anticipation of a "structural rebirth" and a potential recapitalization. Despite the massive price surge, the company remains on the NGX Delisting Watch List (DWL), signaling a high level of regulatory risk and a continued failure to meet basic listing standards. With no consistent earnings and a depleted balance sheet, the stock represents a classic "bet on hope" that is highly vulnerable to a total liquidity freeze if the proposed restructuring fails to materialize.

A negative EPS serves as a major warning sign, indicating that the company is currently unprofitable and eroding shareholder value.

 

R T Briscoe PLC

RTBriscoe is currently undergoing a significant fundamental turnaround, evidenced by its 2nd consecutive year of profitability and a massive 257% surge in earnings (EPS of ₦2.45) for FY 2025. While its stock price skyrocketed by over 175% in Q1 2026—partly fueled by speculative "buzz" surrounding its electric vehicle partnership with BYD—the company remains structurally fragile due to negative equity. Has remarkably low P/E ratio (4.2x) for such a high rally. This suggests that despite the 175% price jump, the stock is still "cheap" relative to its ₦2.45 earnings.

 

NCR (Nigeria) PLC

While its +174% Q1 rally is technically supported by a return to profitability, the magnitude of the price surge has far outpaced its actual earnings, creating what analysts are calling a "valuation-fundamentals mismatch." This recovery is overshadowed by a P/E ratio of over 109x, indicating the price is heavily overextended relative to actual earnings. Most critically, despite the operational turnaround, the company remains technically insolvent with a negative equity position, making its high-flying stock price a high-risk "valuation mismatch" for investors. It has been on a full bid for some time now and has low liquidity. In 2025, NCR truly lived up to the "top gainer" title, finishing the year as the best-performing stock on the entire Nigerian Exchange (NGX) after delivering a staggering 1,354%.

ICT sector heavyweights with sound fundamentals are MTN and CWG.

 

Infinity Trust Mortgage Bank [BLS]

INFINITY is a rare example of a "triple-threat" performer in Q1 2026. Its rally is one of the most fundamentally robust on NGX, as it is simultaneously driven by record earnings, a credit rating upgrade, and a consistent dividend culture. The BLS tag indicates the company is Below Listing Standard. This is a regulatory warning often issued when a company is late with financial filings or fails to meet specific corporate governance codes. This isn't a "recovery from suspension" rally. This is a functional bank that is growing. Its P/E ratio indicates that investors are paying a premium for future growth.

Nigerian Exchange Group

NGXGROUP is currently the fundamental anchor of the market, with its 136% Q1 rally directly reflecting the record-breaking trading volumes and 30% ASI growth seen in Q1 2026. As the "landlord" of the exchange, the company has successfully converted high market activity into a robust EPS of ₦5.18 and an impressive profit. Unlike more speculative outliers, NGXGROUP offers higher liquidity and tangible shareholder rewards, including a proposed ₦2.00 cash dividend and a 1-for-3 bonus issue, signaling strong corporate governance and sustainable wealth creation. This stock does not suffer from the "Full Offer, No Bid" trap for long periods. It was on Full Bid during its recent rally for a short time. Its P/E ratio indicates that investors are paying a premium for future growth.

The Anatomy of the Momentum Trap: Liquidity & Volatility

1. The "Full Bid" Barrier: The Illusion of Entry

In low-cap, volatile, low-liquid stocks, a rally often begins with a "Full Bid, No Offer" scenario. Because the market float (the number of shares available for public trading) is so small, a minor increase in demand causes the stock to hit its 10% daily upper circuit limit almost instantly.

• The Entry Struggle: For a retail investor, getting in at the "ground floor" is nearly impossible. The order book is stacked with buy orders (bids) but zero sell orders (offers).

• The Price Chase: As the stock surges 10% daily, momentum traders become desperate, placing orders. By the time an order is finally filled, the stock is often at its 52-week high, i.e., its peak, leaving the buyer with high-priced shares and zero margin of safety.

2. The "Dumping Session": The Liquidity Mirage

The moment the rally loses steam, the transition from "Full Bid" to "Full Offer" is often instantaneous and violent.

• The Exit Trap: Profit-takers (often institutional players or early "lucky" entrants or holders) begin to offload large volumes. This triggers a "Full Offer, No Bid" scenario.

• The Downward Spiral: Because there are no buyers at the current high price, the stock hits its 10% lower circuit limit daily. Unlike high-cap fundamentally sound stocks, where "dip buyers" step in to provide liquidity, fundamentally unsound low-cap stocks often have a far lower floor.

• Paper Gains vs. Realized Cash: This creates a "mirage of wealth." Your portfolio may show a 200% gain, but if there is no one to buy your shares, that gain is mathematically meaningless. You are effectively trapped in a falling elevator with no exit door.

3. Critical Analysis of "Top-Performer" Lists

Lists showing daily, weekly, or monthly top gainers are often lagging indicators—they tell you what has happened, not what will happen.

• Survivorship Bias: These lists only show the winners. They don't show the tens of similar low-cap stocks that remained stagnant owing to low liquidity.

• The Magnet Effect: These lists act as "bait" for speculative traders. By the time a stock appears on the "Monthly/Quarterly Top Gainer" list, the smart money is usually already looking for the exit.

• Always remember that past performance does not always guarantee future returns.

4. High-Cap vs. Low-Cap: The "Speed of Gravity"

The fundamental difference between a rally in a Blue Chip or high-cap stock and a Penny or low-cap stock lies in depth and velocity (Table 2).

Strategic Takeaways for the Disciplined Investor

• Avoid the "FOMO" (Fear Of Missing Out) Buy: If a stock has been on "Full Bid" for three consecutive days and you haven't secured a position, the risk-to-reward ratio has likely shifted against you.

• Check the Volume, Not Just the Price: A 10% price increase on a volume of only 100,000 shares is far more dangerous than a 2% increase on 10 million shares. Low volume indicates a lack of institutional conviction.

• The 20% Rule: Keeping these "lottery ticket" stocks to a small fraction of your portfolio, say 20%, ensures that when the "mirage" disappears, your core wealth remains intact. 

Final Note: In the world of volatile equities, Liquidity is King. A profit is not a profit until the cash is back in your brokerage account. Beware of "paper wealth" built on the back of low-liquid, fundamentally hollow companies.